On Saturday, American Pharoah became the first horse in 37 years to win horse racing’s Triple Crown.
And this could be some really bad news for stocks.
Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, in the 10 years in which there has been a Triple Crown winner since 1928, stocks have had positive returns over the rest of the year just once.
In fact, the average return for the S&P 500 during rest of these Triple Crown was actually a decline of 9%.
Since 1928 (when S&P data begins), there have been ten Triple Crown winners. Following those ten victories, the average change of the S&P 500 for the rest of the year was a decline of 9.01% with positive returns only once (Omaha). On the other hand, looking at the S&P’s performance in all years since 1928 where there was not a Triple Crown winner, the index has averaged a gain of more than 5% with positive returns more than 75% of the time.
Earlier Monday we highlighted comments from Wells Fargo strategist Gina Martin Adams, who said that while there is rampant nervousness among stock-market investors, this could actually be good for stocks.
But if history repeats, at least when it comes to horse racing and the stock market, it could be an ugly rest of 2015.